POOOOOOOOOOF… curry powder in the face and a swift kick in the baby maker for any who were expecting a sell on the news event today. today was a day that looks like a lot of people getting caught with their newts in a vice. Leaning way to far one way. Many were expecting a sell on the news event ( i had also wondered if that would happen). Instead we squeezed above resistance and closed at new highs for the year for basically everything. it was an accross the board breakout with stocks, indexes, commodities everything ripping above key levels. Today the Emperor of the Universe aka “he who has no name” aka helicopter ben aka Tu Papa showed that his single mandate is to keep us giddy via a bull market run while masking the greatest currency manipulation the world will ever see.
the key is this. If you make 10 percent in the new few months and are pretty happy with yourself……dont be. The dollar itself might be down 20%. GUESS VAAAHT. u lose. if ur up 10% and the dollar is down 10% gues vaaaaaht. You still lose via taxes, commisions, time spent hanging around in your local online twitter bar AKA 3rd rate chatrooms.
The only way this works in your favor is via mass multiples of BETA. if the market is up 10% and you roll some big winners and make 50-60% via big stacked breakouts huge roseanne style Lots of China Ding dongs. Then the dollar laying a goose means nothing. So dont pat yourself on the back. your gonna need to go 3x-4x the market over next few months for this to be worth your time.
Now that the sell the news trade has been wipe off. We have the jobs report. Best way to play this. If we beat expectations and gap up. Just chill. These days often leave you chasing and searching for a stock that hasnt moved and you end up blowing a load on commisions and leave yourself vulnerable to a reversal. If we have semi-bad news and the market gaps down. Buying the weakness has been a good trade of late. Thats when to load it up. If your a trader ….it seems if you pray that your snooty neighbor with nicely manicured lawn ends up eating out of rusted garbage cans that it just might happen. And it will raise stock prices. “HE WHO HAS NO NAME” will not let the market go down…we get terrible news tomorrow he will just float a new QE2 number!! 600 billion to 800 billion…whats a couple hundred billion between friends, bankers, and oil barons.
quick note…we have triggered overbought conditions which normally would be a redflag. But traders and fund guys will be juiced up via viagra/steroid/qe cocktails due to their 4th quarter performance anxiety. They will push the market all over the place to end the year strong.
cheers folks to the QE revival! and cheers to future Qe revivals!