premarket 8/5/2011

Morning folks. Market gapping up premarket over jobs numbers. Right after they came out the spy screamed up 1.6% and is settling in the 1% range.  Yesterday was one of those days you see every couple years.  We started of low and just kept going lower.  It became evident around lunch time that we might just keep cascading down as violated any support levels built on the previous days reversal.  We got the jobs report out of the way and now we got the weekend hoopla that will go on in europe and fed meeting next week.  Im not sure if the market holds the gains from this jobs number. It seems over the past couple years weak job numbers and a big gap down provides buy opportunity and gap ups these days can often give us fades.  Also a weak number would have really stirred up some hopes on QE3 which is what wallstreet really wants.  In the end this is all conjecture. We willlet the price action guide us on how to play today.  Right now our support area after todays gap up will be yesterdays low spx 1200.  My first target for spx will be 1220 and if we can get past that area things get more interesting and we might pop towards 1250.

No watchlist today. I will be playing etfs to trade.  I saw many of you guys dabbling in 3x etfs yesterday.  I cant warn you enough about what type of dynamite your playing with when you trade those.  It is for people that have an intimate knowledge of price action and 100k plus in their accounts.  Most traders with 5-20k in their accunts can barely trade a regular stock let alone one that moves 3x as fast.  Just remember a 3% drop in an index can happen quickly thats 10% in these etfs and the intrady action in them is even crazier.  start off with a regular etf move to 2x.  if u can do that use 3x.

This is not an easy market to trade….  cash is best for right now. there will be opportunities to trade but you got to fight the urge to just start jumping in and out of stuff while the market is not giving us any high probability situations.  Its much more important to not lose money right now then to make money as is always been the case when the bulls crew is making money we know how to pile on the big winners in very short amount of time.

In the end keep a ton of cash so you can be opportunistic, keep the losses small and dont let them cascade into anything big if u do trade.  Give urself a daily loss minute if u cant contain urself and decide to start flipping around stocks, and if you find urself hoping or praying for a bounce u shouldnt be trading at all!.  since we started bulls we have seen these dip scenarios numerous times they always feel like the newest one is the worst and something special.  then 2 weeks later we realize it was no different then the past dips its human to live in the moment and think what u are seeing is extraordinary

see ya’ll in the room