My favorite indicator…. is Oil.

I follow oil religiously.  I get concerned when I see oil continue to go down, especially since it’s not a naturally recurring resource 🙂   
People keep asking if I’m still bullish, or if I’m always bullish.  The answer to the first question, am I still bullish, is yes. I always bullish?  No.   I have made money year over year on the market for many many years, including 2008.  
I am watching things closely — and I’m not convinced this sell-off will last. If you follow these rules, in the long term you’ll always be ahead;
1. Never buy in margin unless you can afford to cover;
2. Keep your long positions in stocks that are fundamentally strong, but take profits where you can on strength.
3. Based on the current volatility I suggest keeping 40% of your account in short term trades.  Less adding on long term positions (still adding, but not aggressive, must be a little more defensive) —- focus on short term income trades, I highly suggest you follow @kunal00 and @urban_ryno on specific short term day trades — or @copperstl on short term day trades on options.  We are shifting slightly on growth to income for the time being.  
4. Don’t let the fear consume you.  Everyone is bearish now, that’s a pretty good sign that we’re near the short term bottom. 
5. Check your calender — remember where we were 10 days ago.   I’ve seen this over and over and over again — we get a pullback, the haters come out.  People start freaking out, giving up, etc.  This is not a crash. 
I’m keeping this blog short, I know many of you are worried – but really let’s put things into perspective — we are still way way way up for the year.  The market kept running, it was dangerous euphoria.   This correction is absolutely necessary, and healthy — and really it’s only been a few days.  Don’t forget to check your calender. 
Remember, relax …. what goes up must come down, and visa-versa.  Tomorrow is the last day of January – it’s a weird trading day… prepare yourselves.  



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