Quick Summary:
Looking for SPY to break key levels. Focus list new addition BITA. Discussion of current position GWPH and stop gunning.
Video Analysis (5 minutes):
The intra-day video features analysis of SPY, thoughts behind GWPH position and holding on once stop was hit, along with discussion of focus list stocks.
Key SPY Pivot Levels: Old high 199, 50 dam 196.61, 197.50 gap fill and support level
Under the Hood and Trading Game Plan:
SPY continues to be bought just when it looks like it’s ready to break a key level. Nothing has changed as we watch for a breakdown and manage the SPXU position.
The current game plan is to manage the SPY short position. I continue to look for long setups on momo stocks, but will not chase. Biotech continues to be the sector of interest. Oil/gas is also picking up.
Current Trades
I am still holding SPY short via SPXU.
GWPH took a bring drop a little after close today for no apparent reason and rebounded just under the broken 50 dma. I did not exit though my stop was hit, as discussed in today’s video and the alert that was sent in the morning. The pullback had the feel of “stop gunning”–taking out the many who have stops under the moving averages before a run up. My stop now is under today’s low. If I had a full size position I likely would not have the luxury of loosening the stop, but my small position keeps my account risk low if stopped out.
The Trade Results Journal/Spreadsheet
The Focus List
Finviz link to easily follow the entire focus list.
For of the focus list 5 are still within entry range. See yesterday’s report for charts and entry strategy.
BIDU broke out strong today, but is still within the trading range. I am going to look to play a breakout of $227 or a pullback of today’s breakout bar. Either way, I want in.
New Addition:
Our daytrading counterparts, and some of you, have been regularly trading BITA. For those of you how are willing to take more speculative positions and can watch, an half size position entry in the $84-87 range, with a stop around $80-82 offers limited risk. The stock looks headed to round number $100. That target gives us 3-4:1 reward to risk.
Short Setups:
My focus now is shorting SPY via SPXU
Market Leaders
TSLA broke out on strong volume today, continues Friday’s break to new highs. FB broke the $76 level and we can look for a good entry level. Z is within entry range.
Please read the post 23 Laws of the Part Time Swing Trading the Market Speculator Way and How to Anayze Your Swing Trade Results It is important to know these rules if you trade off the Report.
New subscribers and trial members please leave me any feedback/comments in the comments, via email (singhjd1@aol.com) or twitter (twitter.com/PaulJSingh).
Been in a slump these last few weeks, not many trades going our way. GWPH has been a tough one for me – even if it’s stopgunning, frustrated that I held past my stop. Exited this morning when there wasn’t a turn around. Half-sized position and reward with full-sized risk feels like bad math!
If exit is at 86 and target at 100, that’s 2.5:1 reward to risk. Combined with what should have been .2-.5 percent position size loss, the math is good, regardless of what is though of the trade.
I value your judgement, you have experience to go with feeling when something has the “feel of” stop-gunning – which is why I think you adjusted your stop (wasn’t originally 86, right?). Glad to see it working your way today. My point is, I know there’s art to trading, but it’s frustrating to know when to ignore a stop.
hey there! those tend to be just a small segment of the time. Trading is not mathematical. There is no green light buy-red light sell type of thinking in this. From what i have seen over the years there is nothing linear a+b=c . There are 3 types of things that end up being important.. 1 is your coursework, setups, r/r ratios all the book knowledge that has to be applied, 2nd part is the trading psychology of controlling your emotions understanding when to push the pedal, when to lay off, not chasing p&l etc. Then the 3rd part which is one of the things that can only be built up with tens of thousands of repetitions is the market intuition. Intuition takes time to build as you need screen time but after some time and lot of repetitions it will build and that is what allows you to adjust on the fly without actually breaking the rules its apart of the rules. It can be frustrating as there is no right answer and it can’t be taught…it can be developed in students over time but there isn’t a linear logic to be applied as there are dozens of variables at any given time to compute. Keep up the hard work…this will come together for you. It took me a long time when i was alone but with pauls help i was able to master this stuff over 5-6 months. let me know if you need any help with anything I’m always around kunal@bullson.ws
I see your original stop 86-87, then stop-gunning on Tuesday AM around 11AM EST. You adjust stop to lows of Tuesday, ~85. So still around 2:1 reward to risk. Thanks for replying to my comment. I’m glad your giving us lower prob trades – if I’m not trading, not going to get any better at this…