Hey guys, the market did not tank today, can you believe it? What happened to all the guys who called a reversal? I’ll tell you where they are. They are back on their soapboxes now touting the long calls they made (and no, my QID trade was not a market reversal call! If it was I would have exited out of my longs).
I’ll pat my back for one call I made. That was to relax and put things in perspective. To analyze the situation and prepare for every eventuality. I’m not sure if that qualifies as a call or non-call, but it is the most prudent method for consistently making money.
The plan for the near future remains the same. Take a few short shots in this overbought market, continue with long setups that hit buy entries, take profits rather quickly and do not get caught to far in one direction or the other. That is the reason I took profits in a great setup like FB today, a little short of my target which was hit. It was not setup related. I made that a point in the alert so that those of you who are not overly invested in one side would stick with the trade. My exit was portfolio and market based, not setup based.
I am still holding CSIQ, LNKD and WOOF long, which are still above comfortably above entry. On the short side, I am holding DUG (inverse short oil and gas) and QID. DUG still has solid gains, though QID’s long tail “reversal” candle may not hold.
SPY, QQQ and IWM all almost invalidated yesterday’s reversal candle, as did many stocks. Now we need to watch and see if those reversal candles hold. If they do not, it could mark the start of a run higher. Looking at SPY, take notice of 3 important levels. 1) the top of the reversal candle, 2) the 20 day moving average (mid bollinger band) and 3) converging price and moving average support in the $189-190 range.
A pullback to 2) and 3) are buyable support levels. A breakout of the candle at $196.70 is also buyable. Strong trends generally hold the 20 dma, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out here.
The Focus List:
Much of the focus list still requires pullback. All entries from Sunday night’s report still apply.
Yesterday’s new addition GOOGL broke out over the resistance level we were watching. I did not enter because the reversal candle was still in the way, and once it broke it the stock was too far from stop levels to offer a good reward to risk ratio. I will watch for pullback in the coming days. Logical stop is $570 and targets are at $600 and $615.
FB, Z and GOOGL broke out today, the rest stayed within ranges.
ETF and Sector List
GLD continues to hold price support and the tight flag at the top of the breakout. It might be worth a shot long on weakness. The tough thing about this trade is it easily could pullback to the 50 day and 200 dma.
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Please read the post 23 Laws of the Part Time Swing Trading the Market Speculator Way. It is important that you know these rules if you trade off the Report.
5 thoughts on “Market Speculator Part Time | Swing Trade Report”
great update thank you
I have a random question about the stock splits. I had several paper money trades (master card, apple) that were significantly affected after the stock split. How do you manage this kind of risks? Thank you.
Thoughts on UA? Looks like a tight Bull flag developing. Thanks
Thanks Paul! Appreciate you filtering out the noise
Great report tonight. Yesterday, I sat on my hands with the pullback, although I was a bit nervous. This morning I checked my stops and went about my day. Got your FB exit while in a meeting and checked afterwards. Moved my stop on FB to your exit and when on with my day only to watch FB run. Yesterday morning I entered GOOGL based on a break of Monday’s highs and it paid today. As I said previously, thank you for your efforts and this service. Truly, a non emotionaly way to trade.