Does today’s seemingly strong action mean we’re out of the woods and ready to move more to the upside? Or, is this just end of month window dressing and the QE2 printing press? Some are predicting a massive fall next month without Ben holding the market’s head just above water. Others believe that the earnings numbers will show that the market is going to turn back up in the second 1/2 of the year on the backs of curbed inflation. After all, commodity/energy prices have been going down allowing for better profit margins for industry and more spending power to consumers.
I, for one, tend to think we head down next week, but news/earnings/data can change all of that, so I’m not betting on my hunch. Instead, I’ll trade what the market gives… and right now, it doesn’t give much. I did well intraday today, but swinging is still tough and the charts are not really hinting too much as to which direction we’re about to proceed.
Click on the SPY chart below for latest thoughts.
Weekly view shows support just below and a possible bottom soon in Stochastics.
The daily chart shows stochastics, MFI, and MACD all trying to round back up (mixed signals from weekly chart). Key levels to watch marked on chart.
SPY 30 minute gives a good view of current activity and possible bottoming of market.
A look at the numbers:
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) – higher than expected. Came in at .3% showing inflation has not left the room.
Personal Income (MoM) 0.30% – in line with expectations. Nothing exciting here
Personal Spending (MoM) – 0% change – people are not spending and, in my opinion, underlines the concern in the market.
Tuesday: Again, more about the consumer. I don’t expect these numbers to be good.
7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
Few charts showing up on screens (there are lots of them that look good, but we need more confirmation that the market is headed up before we load up on long swings):
AGP above Monday’s highs.
VMW above 99.
ALTR above 45.
ARMH over sma50
PCLN over ema23 – forming a little pennant here.. on watch.