Morning folks. Looks like market is gapping up a bit. about 1%. Overseas markets were especially strong running about 2-3% between the different countries in eurozone. Oil is settling around 73 dollars ($uso up 1 dollar).
its been butt ugly the last few weeks so a bounce is too be expected at some point. Very rarely does the market just go down 10 days in a row. When trading always measure your reward to risk ratio’s. Whats the point of entering short swings after the market has been roasted for 8-9 straight days. Your better of just staying in cash. The sentiment has gotten pretty nasty of late. I had a dear friend just tell me last week ” I dont understand why people just dont buy $tza everyday, then your guaranteed to make money” After watching me trade all this time and even trading breakouts and making money last week he still says that!
Im going to be putting some more money into work this week. A 3-5% rally is not out of the question. By looking at the charts it will be fast and shortlived. There is a load of sellers in pretty much everyzone right now in the market. Any rally will be faded fast unless there is some terrific news out. In the end news always trumps a bunch of lines on a chart.
Even with the market bleeding:
Dow: -4.51% last week
S&P 500: -5.03% last week
Nasdaq: -5.92% last week
Russell 2000: -7.15% last week
even with this nonsense there was money to be made in the boom factory we had nearly a 7 out of 10 hit ratio for the week and winners everyday.
On friday alone I had $joez $avnr $arna all go 5-14% gains for 1 day holds.
Overall though we have been making money but the key has been using proper position sizing (going 1/2 size) and moving from a momo/swing trading system to scalping/daytrading. This has reduced our risk and kept us out of trouble in our trading accounts.
Just a couple weeks ago I had posted on our premium blog
“As i mentioned yesterday a couple times… I believe we are drip drip dripping our way downward into a break of the Flash Crash lows. In my opinion it is imminent. Except for Friday where I was doing some heavy daytrading in an oil run I have been 80% cash for weeks. @urbanryno has been basically 100% cash for over a month. heed those warnings. Use smaller position sizes for the time being. there is no excuse to be losing money here. We will daytrade if we must take losses we will make sure they are small”
In the end im preparing to play a bounce this week. Judging by the charts im going to post the odds are it will be shortlived.
RealEstate looking shaky too
Now to play devils advocate with myself. Anytime you are on the bottom of any range all the charts will look like crap. So we need to be aware of the support levels and play bounces and shorts accordingly.
Here are some longs for the week.
I also like $dcth $srz $intt for bottom bounce plays the charts suck and its impossible to figure out how to play them right so just wait for my word on when to buy them…