5/5/2010 CINCO DE Mayo Watchlist | Bulls on Wall Street

5/5/2010 CINCO DE Mayo Watchlist

 
this is what we had in the blog yesterday as kind of what we expected.
 
 
 

We now have had 3 major distribution days during the past two weeks.  While the market has been resilient, it’s tough to ignore what’s going on in this consolidation range.  See the big nasty red down days..they are followed up weak up days..  Thats a distribution pattern.
 
 My guess today would be for a down days since we had an up day yesterday. Thats been the pattern.
 
Days like this there is no need to get heavy and trade big positions.. We will load up on stocks near support if the opportunity presents itself and just daytrade or trade breakouts.
___________________________________________________________________________________
 
Well the market did what we expected but strenght of the selling took me by surprise a bit but that has been the pattern.  On these type of days its important to stay tight and trade a bit lighter an tighter.
 
Unfortunately I was a victime of the overtrading jinx yesterday.  With the big gaps up in $pnx and $ship I really should have taken the huge profits and called it a day.
 
Instead mother market teabagged me and my rabid stock libido with 8 blows to the cock and a slashing of the scrotum as all the “deals” that were presented got the best of me.  But im a firm believer in you buy when others sell so I stuck to my guns and thats what I do. Its work for many of years for me and during the present moment the intraday unrealized losses can be quite uncomfortable.  
 
but this is the thing. Right now we have a market structure for the past 1 year and 1 month that all dips are defended.  So I am not going to fight that trend.  Now if I see a confirmed nasty breakdown (and it looks like we potentially might have one)  Then I will take my losses and reorganize and go short. No big deal.  But i never change my thesis after 1 or 2 days of losses as I have a whole years of exponential gains to sit on.
 
P.s. Im an idiot of epic proportions…  in my other account i had 5k of pnx that i bought at 3.22 after earnings…and i sold not a single share at 3.80 and rode it back down! i used no stops or trailers! i just forgot…..uggggggggggggggg.  talk about taking one up the keister with a serrated kebab knife 
 

____________________________________________________________________________
 
 This is the look today. We are gapping down again.  A break through 50dma.  The good thing is market is getting a bit oversold.  Breakdowns tend not to have a high probability when mkt oversold.  Im giving it a bit of Leeway as the $spy 116 mark is my threshold of pain.  
 
 
 Now we got 4 confirmed distribution days…  This adds to the probability of a breakdown.  Im still not there as i was fool by this in January.  But i give it a 50/50 shot.
 
In the meantime I will be building lists. Dip lists and Short lists.  
 
 
if the market turns higher keep an eye on this.  VG been testing the 1.80 mark forever.  Im not adding it just yet as I noticed everybreakout i tried to trade yesterday failed  and some where picture perfect setups …setups that i have nailed for years for 30% gains in 1 day but they failed. 
 
One easy way to trade in this market..  Look for stocks That are sitting on 2 layers of support.  Price supprt and moving average. That typically will make a super support. If u swingtrade thats the best way to go as ur risk will tiny as u stick a stock under support. 
 
 

Leave a Comment