5/19/2010 gameplan

today was nasty..The market on the gap up reversed course. After yesterdays close a gap up is typical. The level and speed of the reversal was a bit surprising but in Down Trending markets almost all rallies are faded.

As I mentioned in the blog in the morning I will be trimming positions in the a.m. on gap up and thats what I did. In markets like this its good to constantly be taking profits when you see them. As you can always buy the stocks back. I trimmed SNV, PARD pretty much everything. When i bought them back I got them at a better price. Yeah they are down now but I booked gains on them 1st thing so whatever im down now is neglible and I got them back at a better price.

The key to the trading this past 2 weeks has been taking profits as you see them. NO longer are the 30-50% booms showing up and they WONT! they just wont. I saw numerous setups that a month ago would explode and now they peter out at 5-6% before reversing. Those profits have to be taken.

As we keep saying in the BF and in the blogs its best to stay at least 50% cash for most of the past 8-10 days i been closer to 75-80% cash. Ive taken some lumps with UCO and some other positions but they are neglible as I have a large cash hoard to tide me over. Im fine taking small hits to my port as your cash management will help you survive for the time of a reversal.

In terms of the general market. It seems like we are starting to get to the bottom of the range we keep talking about between 50dma and 200dma. On a gap down tomorrow we should be near a level where a bounce can happen as we are starting to get oversold and nearing some major support.

It is possible that we break down through the 200dma. the probabilities of a confirmed breakdown lessen when mkt is getting real oversold but its still possible. If that doesn happen though. We can scalp $sds (double inverse etf for SPY) right through it.

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The gameplan: SELL ALL SPIKES sell all spikes. I been posting that everyday in the boom factory….just do it…there is nothign wrong with taking profits. My plan is to buy extreme weakness. We gap down to the 200dma Im adding stocks.

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If your a partime trader or a swingtrader. Easiest way to that and get good exposure is to use $sso (double etf for SPY). Use $spy as your proxy so if it breaks below 200dma then you unload your $sso

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for the momo guys

ChipMOS RETURNS TO PROFITABILITY IN 1Q 2010; EXPECTS 17% TO 23% REVENUE GROWTH IN Q2 OVER Q1

First Quarter 2010 Highlights:

Net sales increased 53% sequentially to $64.7 million driven by strong organic growth and net sales from the Coretec acquisition
Bookings increased 65% sequentially to $71.7 million, a 1.11 book to bill ratio
Gross margin expanded 110 basis points sequentially to 21.6%
Adjusted EBITDA grew to $8.4 million, a 83% sequential increase
Net income increased over six-fold sequentially to $3.8 million
Integration of Coretec Inc. acquisition on-track, immediately accretive to EPS
Denver facility received Boeing Key Supplier Award

First Quarter Results

Net sales for the first quarter of 2010 were $64.7 million, a 64.6% increase over the prior year quarter and a 53.1% increase sequentially. The increase was due to stronger end market customer demand coupled with the net sales contribution from the Coretec acquisition. On a pro-forma basis, including the impact of Coretec’s net sales for the 2009 comparative periods, net sales for the first quarter of 2010 increased 16.4% over the prior year quarter and increased 12.2% sequentially.

Gross margin for the first quarter of 2010 increased 310 basis points to 21.6% of net sales, from 18.5% of net sales in the prior year period. Sequentially, gross margin increased 110 basis points from 20.5% of net sales. The sequential and year-over-year improvement in gross margin was primarily driven by improved operational performance derived from the increased net sales and cost controls.

Operating income in the first quarter of 2010 was $4.9 million compared to operating income of $0.7 million in the prior year period and operating income of $1.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2010 was $8.4 million compared to $3.6 million in the prior year period and $4.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2009. Reconciliations of this non-GAAP measure are provided after the GAAP condensed consolidated financial statements below and in the first quarter exclude non-recurring costs associated with the Coretec acquisition, including severance and professional fees.

Net income in the first quarter of 2010 was $3.8 million, or $0.19 per share, compared to net income of $0.5 million, or $0.03 per share, in the prior year period. Net income in the fourth quarter of 2009 was $0.6 million, or $0.03 per share.

First Quarter Balance Sheet and Liquidity

As of March 31, 2010, DDi had total cash and cash equivalents of $12.2 million and total debt of $12.6 million. During the first quarter of 2010, DDi repaid, in full, Coretec’s outstanding line of credit, which amounted to $4.2 million at December 31, 2009.

For the three months ended March 31, 2010, capital expenditures totaled $1.3 million.

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if finnies turn around. We have our goto list of snv, bbx etc

these two are right on support also. wait for $xlf to bounce before pouncing.

BANR

AGM

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swingtrading has been very very difficult so we have to be prepared to use great risk managment and wait patiently for our entries.

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For quick trades tomorrow. I hate using these but we need to keep them at our disposal as the setups are real simple.

We can use these to short

FAZ about to breakout: watch chasing the gap up though. always risky. but looks good. over 16 and it really looks good.