Market Speculator Part-Time | Swing Trade Report

Quick Summary:

SPY and IWM hold up well, but still have same issues as yesterday.  Possible short once “fill gaps”.  Focus list remains the same.  Exited TSLA when target was hit today, and entered GWPH.

The Market

Key SPY Pivot Levels: 199 : recent old high, 197. 33 dma, 194.47: 50 dma


Under the Hood and Trading Game Plan:

Like clockwork, the buyers stepped in and saw weakness in SPY as an opportunity.  It’s the old “keep doing it until it doesn’t work” strategy.  When the market looked like it was tanking, I received emails and tweets asking why I wasn’t short SPY or IWM like I had discussed the night before.  Much of it was “feel”.  Objectively, I didn’t see strong downside volume.  I also monitor my watchlists very closely, and while 2/3 of my main watchlist had turned red, most were down less than 1 percent.  It didn’t “feel” like I needed to get short yet.  That’s also why I took a stab at GWPH on pullback.  If it felt like a strong move down, I would not have entered.

The preceding day’s analysis of SPY still applies.  Negative volume pattern, RSI divergence, lack of breadth in stocks still exists.  On the plus side is the overall trend, $200 round number magnet, and a gap fill up to $199.  It’s common knowledge that this market loves to fill gaps.

My bias is now slightly bearish and I will consider shorting SPY on strength, especially if the gap gets filled.  I will likely use inverse leveraged ETF SPXU.  Wit inverse ETFs, you enter long in order to short the underlying equity.  If you are short SPY, you can do it by going long SPXU.

IWM did noting to negate the bearish setup.  As with SPY, I like it on gap fill in the $114.25-114.75 range.  I will look to short strength via inverse leveraged ETF SRTY.

IWM 7-28a-14

I am still looking for long setups in momo stocks and earnings related setups that have pulled back  are ready to bounce, and developing short setups.  My focus for shorts early in the week will be market inverse leverage ETFs SPXU and SRTY.

Current Trades

TSLA was volatile today, which is why I love this stock.  I sold it when the $230 target was hit (entry at $219.23).

I entered focus list stock GWPH at $83.22.  Stop is around $80 and Target is $95.

I am still holding GMCR.

The Trade Journal results

The Focus List

Not including the earnings breakout list, I have shortened the focus list to start the week with recognizable momo stocks and one earnings pullback.  All pullback entries are negated if market or stock tanks on high volume.

INO is starting the gap fill and entered our buy zone today.  I could have entered (I know a few of you did) but didn’t want to add any longs.  This is a breakout-pullback to gap fill setup.

INO 7-28a.14

YY long tail suggest the pullback we are waiting for will happen.  BWLD is nearing the resistance level we are watching for breakout.  GMCR and GWPH remain near support/entry level.  I have taken Z off the focus list since it will require a multi-day pullback.  See yesterday’s report for entry levels.

Focus list 7-28a-14

Short Setups GRMN, , MSM , SDRL and DAL are all near entry levels.  SDRL broke down from trading range and is a short on pullbck to $37.

short setups 7-28a-14

During earnings season I keep an eye on breakouts.  These are not necessarily focus list stocks that are near entry levels now, but I keep a breakout list and over the days and weeks ahead, I watch for good pullback or post break consolidation entries.

I have included all 15 breakouts that I am watching for those who like to monitor this type of stuff.  For most of these, I am looking for pullbacks either to the bottom of the breakout bar or gap fill.

breakouts 7-28-14

Market Leaders

These are stocks that I always watch, though they might not be in my tradeable watchlist, nor are they actually always leading the market.

Z continues it’s huge run.  NFLX looks ready to rollover.  GOOGLE continues pullback to buy zone.  FB holding breakout level.  CAT and AMZN forming trading ranges post breakdown.

market leaders 7-28a-14

Please read the post 23 Laws of the Part Time Swing Trading the Market Speculator Way and How to Anayze Your Swing Trade Results  It is important to know these rules if you trade off the Report.

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Paul Singh Administrator

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