SPY analysis remains the same, short on strength and long on pullback. Two trades on Friday, YELP and TWTR. This week’s focus list stocks: TWTR, YELP, TSLA, GMCR, LNKD, GS, AAPL, YY, WOOF, EMES
Nothing has changed with regard to the Market and other aspects of what we discuss on a daily basis, so today we will do nothing but discuss the 10 focus list stocks to start the week and update Friday’s trades. These are the 10 stocks that are close to buy points and actionable. If you need a refresher on the market and market leaders, here’s the last report.
The first two are trades I made on Friday and are still on the focus list, TWTR and YELP. I am holding a half position in YELP, and full short position in TWTR. I am also still holding KORS. KORS is hitting the 2 week mark and if it does not move soon I will get out.
We’ll start with our only short setup, TWTR. I entered this short setup on Friday and the setup is still available, with the 50dma acting as resistance. Remember that this is a speculative short setup as the stock nears the 50 dma. Entry here with a stop at
$27.40 $37.40 and target at $34.50 gives 4:1 reward to risk. A high risk ratio like this is necessary when taking a speculative setup.
Why is this speculative? We are trading against an overall bullish setup as the stock looks to have bottomed. If the stock clears the 50 dma, it becomes extremely bullish and could reach $45 or $60 in short time. If the 50 dma does clear, we reverse and this becomes a long setup.
YELP was a big winner for many of you and me on Friday. Entry was based on the breakout pullback setup and a great volume pattern. Now that we have a breakout with a huge gap, we move our stops up to the bottom of the breakout bar around $70 to see if we can capture an even bigger run while locking in profits. Normally I move stop to entry, but here the gap is so big that entry level would give back too much profit. The natural spot for a stop is just under $70.
YELP is still on the focus list for those looking to enter or build bigger positions. I would wait to see if a range builds here and buy the bottom of the range.
TSLA is one of our market leader stocks and a member requested this chart. While it’s tough to predict direction, once a breakout of the developed range occurs, there is big room to move in that direction. We wait for the breakout.
We continue to trade the range with GMCR, buying the bottom and selling or shorting the top. Once there is a breakout of $124, we drop trading the range and play it as a new high breakout.
LNKD was another chart request that I liked. I am actually replacing AMZN and FB, two other stocks with almost identical patterns. Entry in the $160-165 range, with stop at $157 and initial target at $180-185.
GS is developing a flag pattern above the remounted moving average. There are two ways to play this. Enter on a breakout of $167.50, or a pullback to $164-165. In either case stops end up 2-3 points under entry level.
AAPL has been trending strong. Most strong trending stocks bounce off the 20 dma, which is close right now. Entry at $90.50-91 with stop at $89 and target at $94. The next target is round number resistance $100.
YY has developed a strong RSI and volume pattern as price shows a possible bottom. Entry on pullback to the 50 dma in the $63-65 range. This one has lots of room to move if it resumes the uptrend. The stop is at $61 with targets at the $70, $80 and $90 levels.
WOOF is volatile and has a crazy pattern, or should I say, non-pattern. Postive volume is great, and this pullback has entered the bottom of the breakout bar and back to the old high. This one is speculative and you must be able to deal with volatility, but an d entry int he $34.50 with stop at $33.50-34 has potential for big gains.
EMES is pulling back to the 20 dma and is a strong trending stock. Notice the arrows on the chart. Every time stochastic was at or near oversold level and crossed over, and pulled back to the 20 dma, it was a great buy opportunity. That is where we are now. An entry in the $96-100 range, with stop at $94 and initial target at $114 offers 2:1 to 8:1 reward to risk depending on entry.
5 thoughts on “Market Speculator | Part Time Swing Trade Report”
Hi Paul –
Did you mean a stop of $37.40 on TWTR?
Typo in stop for TWTR – should be $37.40 instead of $27.40.
Great charts! Cheers!
Thanks for catching the typo guys. It has been corrected.
Paul, how much does the sector play into you placing a position and affect the size of it? If the particular stock has a great looking chart and setup, will you play it as if you would any other even though it may not be in a so called “hot sector?”
Also – I usually check sector performance on the wall street journal site… What time period do you consider most or consider most important when browsing possible swing plays… Daily, weekly, monthly, etc… I ask as I am trying to make smarter scans – and input from a professional would be much appreciated!
I am eyeing CONN, ARCB, ETE for possible entries this week. Would be curious to know what you like or don’t about these.
I use sector analysis to build my watchlist. Once the watchlist and focus list are built, I am just looking at the action of the specific stock, regardless of sector. If I am very interested in a particular sector, I’ll trade the ETF.