Quick Summary:
Video with BWLD analysis. IWM short setup. Focus list addition DECK. Other earnings breakouts near entry include INO, SPNC, SWI. YY flag pattern. Z nearing entry level.
Video: Analysis of BWLD and Some Breakouts (Length 6 minutes)
The Market
Key SPY Pivot Levels: 199 : recent old high, 197. 33 dma, 194.47: 50 dma
Under the Hood and Trading Game Plan:
Another close under the 20 dma for SPY, but again dip buyers came in to prevent a down day. The market is not giving up without a fight.
The preceding day’s analysis of SPY still applies. Negative volume pattern, RSI divergence, lack of breadth in stocks still exists. On the plus side is the overall trend, $200 round number magnet, and a gap fill up to $199. It’s common knowledge that this market loves to fill gaps.
My bias is now slightly bearish and SPY is still a short possibility.
I am still stalking IWM for a short in the $114-114.75 range. Due to the bearish volume and price action, I like IWM better than SPY as a short setup. I will look to short strength via inverse leveraged ETF SRTY.
I am still looking for long setups in momo stocks and earnings related setups that have pulled back are ready to bounce, and developing short setups. My focus for shorts early in the week will be market inverse leverage ETFs SPXU and SRTY.
Current Trades
I am still holding GWPH and GMCR, which didn’t do much today.
Note: Those still holding TSLA, it reports earnings tomorrow. I rarely hold though earnings.
The Trade Journal results
The Focus List
Not including the earnings breakout list, I have shortened the focus list to start the week with recognizable momo stocks and one earnings pullback. All pullback entries are negated if market or stock tanks on high volume.
YY looks like it is forming an HTF (high and tight flag). This is when price consolidates at the top of the breakout bar before resuming trend. We watch for a breakout of $80 or can enter within flag. This is tough to play because it can pullback to the bottom of the breakout bar. If you don’t feel comfortable with small losses, wait for breakout.
INO has pulled back to gap fill. I thought about entering today but held off due to the market.
New Addition:
DECK broke out on earnings into new high territory. The stock has pulled back to the bottom of the breakout bar. Entry $88-90. Stop around $87-87.50. Target $94+.
Short Setups
I don’t know what to make of GRMN’s post earnings bar. For now, “when in doubt, throw it out”. SDRL need to pullback up for entry. DAL is setting up nicely. MSN also needs a little light strength for entry. My preference is to short IWM rather than the individual stocks.
During earnings season I keep an eye on breakouts. These are not necessarily focus list stocks that are near entry levels now, but I keep a breakout list and over the days and weeks ahead, I watch for good pullback or post break consolidation entries.
Breakouts near pullback entry: DECK, INO, SWI, SPNC.
Market Leaders
These are stocks that I always watch, though they might not be in my tradeable watchlist, nor are they actually always leading the market.
NFLX bounced nicely after a downtrend. Maybe we see a gap fill at $450. If it’s on low volume, it could setup a good short. FB is forming a range. Still watching AMZN and CAT for how they react to gap downs. Z is geting closer to the entry range we talked about. TSLA reports earnings tomorrow.
Please read the post 23 Laws of the Part Time Swing Trading the Market Speculator Way and How to Anayze Your Swing Trade Results It is important to know these rules if you trade off the Report.
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